SEATTLE — I could say don’t panic … but this is blossoming into a disaster.

Ebbs and flows are expected in Major League Baseball, but this is ebbin’ ridiculous.

A month ago, it seemed the discussion would be whether the Mariners make the playoffs via the division crown or the wild card. Now the question seems to be whether they will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline.

The records of the M’s’ past three opponents suggested a Seattle surge was coming. The Orioles (26-39), Angels (33-34) and Diamondbacks (34-34) were all sub .500 when this road trip began. Instead, we’re watching an epic Seattle skid, with the Mariners (33-34) dropping eight of their past nine. Are you staying cool, or has your faith in this team cooled completely?

Wednesday’s 5-2 loss to Arizona was particularly cutting. A sixth-inning grand slam by former Mariner Eugenio Suárez sent the M’s below .500 for the first time since April 15. They now sit 3.5 games behind the Astros in the American League West. Presumably further discomforting the fan base was that the dinger came off emerging ace Bryan Woo, who has given up nine earned runs over his past 12 innings.

It wasn’t long ago that fangraphs.com gave the Mariners close to an 80% chance of making the postseason. Now it’s at 45.6%, with the AL West title projection at 26.8%. That might have seemed unfathomable when Seattle was playing like the best team in the American League at the end of April and in early May. But based on the uninspiring activity this offseason? It tracks.

I could say don’t panic … but the next few weeks are a long way from a reprieve. Home series vs. the Guardians (35-32) and the Red Sox (33-36) certainly aren’t gimmes, and following that is a 10-day road trip against the Cubs (41-27 overall, 20-11 at home), Twins (35-31, 19-11) and Rangers (32-35, 20-13). Using recent results to forecast future ones is tricky in any sport — but that’s especially true in baseball.

Still, when the M’s struggle with subpar foes, what can one expect when they clash with more formidable ones? Yes, they still have Cal Raleigh playing the best baseball of his career. The catcher leads MLB with 26 home runs and would likely finish second in the MVP voting behind Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge if the season ended today. But this isn’t hoops, where you can just put the ball in your best player’s hands. He needs help and isn’t getting it right now.

The M’s have managed just 28 runs over their past nine games. They’ve fallen to 15th in MLB in that category. An improvement from last year? Absolutely. But not enough to compensate for the injury issues that have plagued this year’s pitching staff.

Julio Rodríguez’s defense has been immaculate this season, but his .748 OPS is well below his career average. Jorge Polanco, meanwhile, has all but disappeared. The man who was batting .395 on May 3 is hitting .262 today. This teamwide slide is a familiar tale with this organization, and the current personnel doesn’t suggest a considerable turnaround.

I’d say don’t panic … but that “best starting rotation in baseball” may be a thing of the past. Bryce Miller, who has struggled through much of the season, just went back on the injured list. Dominant in 2024, the Texan will likely be out four-to-six weeks due to elbow inflammation. True, Logan Evans — essentially Miller’s replacement — has pitched well this season, posting a 3.38 ERA over 40 innings. But losing Miller is a blow.

I wrote earlier that I was bullish on the Mariners making the playoffs due to their success sans George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. The former has pitched well in his past two outings after struggling in his first two starts of the season. The latter has performed well in his rehab stints, but big-league bats are a different game entirely. It will likely take a game or two before Gilbert finds his footing.

Woo, meanwhile, is a semi-proven commodity, but his ERA going from 2.69 to 3.39 over the past two and a half weeks is cause for concern.

All in all, this is feeling very Mariners. A club that has made the playoffs just once in the past 24 years looks more likely than not to be heading in that direction again. So in that sense, maybe no one is panicking. Maybe, by this point, they’re just used to it.

____

©2025 The Seattle Times. Visit seattletimes.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.