US Open best bets, sharp plays: 'You could be lighting money on fire'

Todd Dewey, Las Vegas Review-Journal on Jun 11, 2025

Published in Golf

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LAS VEGAS — Sharp bettors don’t see any value in backing Scottie Scheffler to win the U.S. Open as the shortest favorite to win a major in 16 years.

But it’s still tough to bet against him.

“It almost feels like you could be lighting money on fire doing that,” Westgate SuperBook golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman said.

Sherman and VSiN golf handicapper Wes Reynolds are playing with fire this week at Oakmont Country Club outside Pittsburgh with best bets on golfers not named Scheffler to win what is considered the toughest test in golf.

They have two common plays, including defending and two-time U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau, the +750 second choice behind Scheffler (+280) who tied for 15th in his first major in the 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont.

“I wanted to have somebody near the top, and he felt like the best value,” said Sherman (@golfodds). “I’m not going to bet Scheffler at 3-1 or less, even though the expectation is there for him. It feels like he can give Scheffler the toughest run, finishing no worse than fifth in his last six events and winning (the U.S. Open) last year and in 2020.”

Reynolds also likes the fact that DeChambeau has been in the mix in both majors this year, having played in the final group on Sunday at the Masters with eventual winner Rory McIlroy and tying for second at the PGA Championship behind Scheffler.

“DeChambeau seems to relish the challenge of long, classical parklands golf courses like Oakmont,” said Reynolds (@WesReynolds1). “Of DeChambeau’s 12 combined victories on the PGA Tour and LIV, 10 of them have been on bentgrass or bentgrass/poa annua, and nine of those wins have come in the eastern part of the country.”

Their other common play is on long shot Harris English, who has dropped to 83-1 after Sherman bet him at 150-1.

“He’s the one that I like the most,” Sherman said. “He’s had a great season, and if you look at his U.S. Open form, out of the last five years, he’s got an eighth, a third and a fourth.”

Sherman also bet English to be the first-round leader (70-1) and to win a matchup (-135) over Jason Day.

“English finished tied for second at last month’s PGA, 12th at the Masters and he also won for us earlier this year at Torrey Pines South, a former U.S. Open venue, for the Farmers Insurance Open at 100-1,” said Reynolds (@WesReynolds1).

Sherman also bet on Shane Lowry (35-1), who is in top form this season and was runner-up in the 2016 U.S. Open, and Sepp Straka (50-1).

The Westgate took sharp action on Ludvig Aberg (+110) over Joaquin Niemann in a matchup and on the winning score under 278 1/2.

Here are Reynolds’ other best bets (with comments on each):

Jon Rahm, +1275

“It seemed like it had been a while for Jon Rahm to be in the thick of it in a major, but he was in the mix at last month’s PGA before fading to a tie for eighth. While he has yet to win in 2025, Rahm has been a model of consistency, having never finished outside of the top 10 in any LIV event. Rahm also was the low amateur at Oakmont in 2016, finishing 23rd.”

Xander Schauffele, 22-1

“Schauffele looks to be far off from where he was this time last summer when he was sandwiched in between two major championships. However, he has finished inside the top 10 at the U.S. Open in seven of eight career starts and has never finished lower than 14th.”

Joaquin Niemann, 30-1

“Niemann has four victories on LIV Golf this year, including last weekend at the Robert Trent Jones Golf Club in Virginia. His tie for eighth last month at the PGA was his first top 10 in a major, and he seems to be getting more comfortable competing with the game’s top players.”

Viktor Hovland, 55-1

“The Norwegian is much better chipping and punching out of thick rough in lieu of tight lies around the green. He finished third at the 2023 PGA Championship on a similar layout at Oak Hill.”

Matt Fitzpatrick, 125-1

“Fitzpatrick is no stranger to winning a major championship on a classical design, having won the 2022 U.S. Open at The Country Club (Brookline, Mass.). He finished tied for eighth last month at the PGA and is one of the better putters out there on the lightning-fast greens that the players will see this week.”