John Romano: Can the Bucs win again with so many INTs? History says it's not likely.

John Romano, Tampa Bay Times on Jul 26, 2025

Published in Football

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TAMPA, Fla. — As a nation, we are splintered. Practically irreconcilable.

For instance, some people still firmly believe in running the football on first down. Imagine that. Others are convinced that a prevent defense will eventually doom us all. And heaven forbid you try critiquing Tom Brady’s broadcasting skills in polite company.

Yet, for all our differences, there is one concept that we seem to stand faithfully behind:

Turnover differential is the key to winning and losing in the NFL.

This is not to be debated.

Last season, in games when they lost the turnover battle, teams had a .222 winning percentage. The year before that, it was .256. Before that, it was .233.

If you have more fumbles and interceptions than your opponent, you’re going to lose roughly 80% of your games. That’s practically natural law. Like gravity. Or shifty-looking clouds.

Which brings us to this mystery:

How the heck did the Buccaneers make the playoffs in 2024?

For the season, Tampa Bay had a turnover differential of minus-5. There were 17 teams with a negative turnover rate in the league, and 16 of them failed to make the playoffs. Only the Bucs were still standing when the postseason began.

It is, in some ways, a remarkable feat. A nod to all that the Bucs do right. And an indication that Baker Mayfield, despite tying for the league lead in interceptions at 16, made big plays at big moments.

It should also be a warning sign that the Bucs can’t continue living on the edge.

“(Mayfield) has definitely got to play his game. We’re not trying to limit him as far as playing his game,” head coach Todd Bowles said. “We’ve just got to be smarter with a few more decisions going forward. He throws a lot of touchdowns, and he makes a lot of plays for us.

“We just want to cut that interception ratio down.”

This is nothing new for Mayfield. Since he entered the league as a No. 1 pick in 2018, no quarterback in the NFL has thrown more interceptions. As Bowles suggested, it’s part of his nature. Mayfield is a playmaker and sometimes pushes the envelope too far.

The trick is reducing the turnovers while retaining the aggressiveness that helped Mayfield finish second in touchdown passes in 2025 with 41.

Mayfield suggested it is a question of being more cognizant of the score, field position and clock when it comes to taking calculated risks.

While he didn’t have any pick-sixes and had the majority of his turnovers in the midfield range, Mayfield did throw three interceptions in the opponent’s end zone.

“It’s always circumstantial, when it comes to situational football,” Mayfield said. “(Are we going) into the half, two-minute drill, where we are obviously trying to get points but not giving the ball (back) with time left to score? Or is it the end of the game where we are really trying to get down the field and score and just knowing where we are on the field? We already have points, we already (are in range of) a field goal.

“We have a great kicker and know that if we take a sack in the red zone, it’s not the best, but (Chase McLaughlin) can still nail a long one. Trusting our defense this year, and understanding that if we just do our job on offense good things are going to happen.”

This brings up another point. That negative turnover differential was not earned in a vacuum. This was as much the defense’s fault as Mayfield’s high interception rate.

Tampa Bay forced 18 turnovers in 2024. That was the second-lowest total in franchise history.

Once again, it’s fairly unusual the Bucs were able to make the playoffs with a below-average number of takeaways, particularly when it came to interceptions.

So was it the fault of the secondary, which was banged-up last season? To a large degree. But the lack of a fearsome edge rusher also played a role. And a season-ending shoulder injury to linebacker SirVocea Dennis created a hole in the middle of the field.

All those issues were seemingly addressed in the offseason. The Bucs drafted cornerbacks in the second and third round, they signed free agent pass rusher Haason Reddick and Dennis is back on the field after having surgery.

“I think we are more hungry this year,” safety Antoine Winfield Jr. said. “Obviously, every year you want to come hungry, but we know we are so close to putting everything together. I really think it is setting the standard early, like, ‘We can do this.’ We have all the tools that we need. It is just about putting all the right things together at the right time and staying healthy.”

In a big-picture sense, that all sounds true.

But the reality is the Bucs need to do better with turnovers on both sides of the ball. In the Super Bowl era, only four teams have had a turnover ratio of minus-5 or worse in back-to-back seasons while making the playoffs, and the last time it happened was more than 20 years ago.

If we agree on nothing else, it seems obvious the Bucs need a course correction on turnovers.

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