David Murphy: The real math says the Sixers won't land Cooper Flagg. But what about the conspiracy math?

David Murphy, The Philadelphia Inquirer on May 12, 2025

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PHILADELPHIA — Do I think the Sixers are going to end up drafting Cooper Flagg?

No, I don’t.

The math says they have only a 10.5% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick in Monday night’s NBA draft lottery. But maybe you don’t believe the math. Maybe you think that the NBA Deep State decides which teams draft where. Maybe you think Patrick Ewing got hand-delivered to the Knicks because David Stern needed a star in one of his marquee markets. Maybe you think something more than sheer chance was responsible for the Magic earning the right to draft Shaquille O’Neal. Maybe you think it isn’t a coincidence that the Spurs always seem to land the No. 1 overall pick in a year when a generational prospect is available and when they desperately need such a thing. Maybe you think the moon is actually a container of blue cheese.

Even then, the Sixers wouldn’t be the obvious choice to receive the ol’ Delco handshake. If you want to believe in the deep state, you have to think like the deep state. Otherwise, you end up sounding like Mel Gibson running on a week with no sleep.

If the fix were in, the contenders would look something like this:

— Portland Trail Blazers

Current position: 10

Odds at No. 1: 3.8%

Rationale: The Blazers are a proud franchise with a good fan base and are currently the only NBA team in the Pacific Northwest. They just wrapped up their sixth straight losing season, but they’ve done it the right way. They tried to hold on to their homegrown superstar before finally granting Damian Lillard his trade request. This year, they won 36 games while many of the teams ahead of them decided to throw in the towel. They haven’t picked No. 1 overall since 2007, when they selected Greg Oden instead of Kevin Durant.

The Blazers have paid their dues. Flagg in Portland would be a good thing for the NBA. The only problem is the odds. It’s hard to vault a team up nine spots from its lottery position without raising an eyebrow or two.

— Brooklyn Nets

Current position: 6

Odds of No. 1: 9%.

Rationale: The only reason the Nets aren’t No. 1 is that it’s too obvious. The deep state may not want to press its luck. You don’t need to be P.T. Barnum (or Bailey) to understand the allure of Flagg landing in Brooklyn: the idea of adding a generational superstar to the Big Apple and fomenting a legitimate crosstown rivalry with the Knicks. The Nets landed the No. 1 pick in 2017 but it belonged to the Celtics. They’ve taken their medicine for their failed super team and are ready for a real homegrown centerpiece star. If the deep state operates on purely utilitarian grounds, then Brooklyn would be the pick, appearances be damned.

— Utah Jazz

Current position: 1

Odds of No. 1: 14%

Rationale: Very similar to the Blazers. A proud legacy franchise in a market that loves its team and supports a winner but isn’t a destination city and has a difficult time attracting major talent on the free-agent and trade markets. Plus, the Jazz have never won the lottery. In fact, they’ve never landed higher than No. 5. A Jazz team that pairs Flagg with 27-year-old forward Lauri Markkanen and 21-year-old Keyonte George would be a very fun television product. The deep state could take a year off and let chalk prevail.

Everyone else is a distant fourth. Could the deep state really keep a straight face if it vaulted the Bulls from No. 12 to No. 1? There’s a 1.7% chance of that happening in the real world, according to the math. Again, if appearances weren’t an issue, Chicago would rank similarly to Brooklyn. But why take the chance when there are less conspicuous options?

The Wizards (14% odds at No. 1), Hornets (14%) and Raptors (7.5%) are the kinds of franchises that a deep state would force to fend for themselves. The Pelicans (12.5%) drafted Zion Williamson at No. 1 overall in 2019. Look at how that is working out.

As for the Sixers? The last decade would suggest that they aren’t among the deep state’s favorites. Heck, forget the No. 1 overall pick. They’ll have won the lottery if Bryan Colangelo doesn’t end up back in charge.

The one potential conspiracy thread involves the strange arena about-face. Any conspiracy theorist worth his Reddit handle is going to wonder about asks and deliverables when Adam Silver is holding secret meetings in NFL luxury suites in order to usurp the will of City Council. But then, the Sixers would be thrilled with far less than No. 1. As long as they land in the top six and avoid conveying to Oklahoma City, everybody goes home happy.

Then again, maybe that’s what the deep state wants you to think.

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