The Democrats are leaderless; the Democrats have an identity crisis; the Democrats have lousy approval ratings. None of that precludes them from having a successful midterm election in 2026.

Let’s, for a moment, focus on some hard data.

Per a YouGov poll for The Economist conducted May 2-5, American voters view Democrats in Congress quite negatively, rating them just 33% “favorable” versus 54% “unfavorable.” That leaves the party hoping to reclaim control of the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate next year underwater by a troubling 21 percentage points. Driving those lousy numbers are favorable ratings that are low among men and women (31% and 35%, respectively), whites (28%), seniors (32%) and self-described political independents (21%), an influential bloc in midterm elections.

The same YouGov survey shows President Donald Trump with a higher 42% favorable/53% unfavorable rating. In other words, he is more popular than Democrats in Congress by a net of nine points. Trump holds some additional advantages with voters compared to the Democrats, as detailed here by CNN polling analyst Harry Enten. And yet, as the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls shows, the Democrats still have an edge over the Republicans in the generic 2026 congressional ballot — 45.5% vs 43.5%. So, what gives?

The Democrats’ poor numbers are being fueled by dissatisfaction among Democratic voters, which has grown since Trump resumed office in January. Even in surveys where the voting bloc gives congressional Democrats seemingly healthy favorable ratings, those numbers are significantly lower than in past years. However, the last thing these disgruntled Americans are likely to do in the upcoming midterm elections is sit on their hands and skip an opportunity to rebuke Trump, whom they loathe far more than any Democrat on Capitol Hill.

As Nathan L. Gonzales, a political analyst and publisher of the nonpartisan handicapper Inside Elections, explained to me late last week, “Democratic voters may not like what Democrats on the Hill are doing. But they don’t want President Trump to have two more years of unchecked power.”

This isn’t just an assumption by Gonzales — or me. In my coverage of midterm elections in 2010 and 2014 that saw historic Republican gains amid disappointment with President Barack Obama, the GOP wasn’t all that popular.

For instance, in 2010, the Republicans won 63 seats in the House of Representatives, grabbing their largest majority in the chamber in more than half a century. But this Gallup chart showed Democrats were rated roughly 4 points higher than the Republicans heading into that contest. A New York Times/CBS News poll fielded that same fall reported similar findings.

Now, let’s examine 2014, Obama’s second midterm election. Republicans captured a majority in the Senate by flipping nine seats, the largest gain in the chamber for either party in nearly 35 years. They also upped their existing majority in the House of Representatives by 13 seats. They did so despite their own party’s voters giving Congress an average job approval rating of roughly 15% for the entirety of 2014, per a Gallup polling analysis published that December. The reasons for Republican discontent back then echo the complaints of grassroots Democrats today.

At the time, many GOP voters complained congressional Republicans didn’t fight hard enough to thwart Obama’s agenda — on government spending and especially on health care.

Recall: In 2013, a collection of insurgent Republicans on Capitol Hill engineered a government shutdown in a bid to force Obama to shelve the Affordable Care Act, or “Obamacare,” his signature 2010 health care overhaul. But GOP leaders, concluding the effort was a political catastrophe, worked with Democrats to kill the revolt. Grassroots Republicans were furious. Yet, as we already know, that didn’t stop them from rewarding congressional Republicans the following year with a fresh majority in the Senate and a larger majority in the House of Representatives.

Similarly, just a few months ago, Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer facilitated passage of a must-pass “continuing resolution” to fund the federal government. He compromised with Republicans and the White House rather than instigate a government shutdown in a longshot attempt to undermine Trump. Grassroots Democrats were apoplectic, accusing the New York Democrat of capitulating.

Yet, just as Republican voters flocked to the polls in two midterm elections to undercut Obama amid frustration with their party in Congress, so too are Democratic voters in 2026 likely to prioritize neutering Trump — no matter how unhappy they are with their party’s performance on Capitol Hill. Trump’s sliding job approval ratings of late suggest that such a clipping could be in the offing next year, at least in the House of Representatives, where Republicans control a majority that rests on just a handful of seats.

“I think the Democrats’ low party approvals are more of a 2028 problem than a 2026 problem, and the 2028 problem will be addressed — positively or negatively — by the 2028 Democratic presidential primary,” said Kyle Kondik, a nonpartisan political handicapper and managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “Midterms are more referendums; presidential elections are more choices.”

Indeed, the Democrats still have plenty of problems to work through if they want to put themselves in a better position to take back the White House in 2028, among them resolving their aforementioned identity crisis. They might be on track to increase their ranks in Congress next year. But as Republicans discovered in 2012 and as Democrats learned in 2022, success in the midterm does not necessarily foreshadow victory in the subsequent race for the presidency.

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This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

David M. Drucker is columnist covering politics and policy. He is also a senior writer for The Dispatch and the author of "In Trump's Shadow: The Battle for 2024 and the Future of the GOP."

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