Will California have a mild summer or hotter-than-usual weather? See the forecast

Angela Rodriguez, The Sacramento Bee on May 26, 2025

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SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Get ready, California.

The official start of summer less than a month away, and it’s shaping up to be a hot one.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting higher-than-usual temperatures across much of the country this summer — including California.

“For (June through August) 2025, we are forecasting 50% to 60% chances of above-normal temperatures for the northern and eastern parts of California, with 40% to 50% chances along the southern coast,” the agency told The Sacramento Bee via email.

This means summer “temperatures are likely to be above normal for much of the state” in 2025, the weather agency said.

Here’s what to expect:

Question: When does summer officially begin?

Answer: The summer solstice marks the point when the sun reaches its northernmost position in the sky, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac.

At the summer solstice, Earth reaches the point in its orbit where the North Pole tilts closest to the sun.

This marks the beginning of the summer season in the Northern Hemisphere, including North America, and the official start of winter in the Southern Hemisphere.

According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, the summer solstice begins on June 20 in California.

Q: What’s in the forecast for California this summer?

A: The National Weather Service’s latest three-month outlook, issued on May 15, shows temperatures in June, July and August will be above normal this summer.

“’Normal’ is based on the average of all temperatures from 1991 to 2020,” the weather agency said.

In Sacramento, there’s roughly a 53% chance of above-average heat — but conditions will vary by region.

For more specific forecasts, the agency recommends checking its interactive maps for localized details.

Q: How California’s summer heat could affect drought conditions

A: As of Friday, May 23, about 22.7 million Californians were living in areas affected by drought, according to the National Integrated Drought Information System.

As of the latest report from Tuesday, May 20, 39.8% of California is experiencing drought conditions, with 18.3% classified as abnormally dry, 15.1% in moderate drought, 17.6% in severe drought, 7.0% in extreme drought and 0.1% in exceptional drought.

That includes several counties across the Central Valley and Southern California.

Affected counties include Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Luis Obispo.

“Since summer is a dry time of year, ongoing drought is likely to persist through the end of August,” the weather agency said.

Q: When will abnormally high temperatures hit California?

A: As of Friday, May 23, the Climate Prediction Center was forecasting above-normal temperatures across most of California from Friday, May 30, to June 5.

There’s also a 20% to 40% chance of extreme heat in parts of the Central Valley between Thursday, May 29, and Saturday, May 31, the weather agency told The Bee.

Q: How bad will California wildfires be this summer?

A: Wildfire season is already underway in California, and experts warn it could be worse than usual.

Wildfire season typically runs from May to November, with most fires happening during the summer months, according to the Western Fire Chiefs Association.

The National Interagency Fire Center predicts an “above-normal” risk for significant wildfires across much of California from June through August, according to its latest seasonal outlook.

“Outlooks for Northern and Southern California both paint a picture of a significant increase — (a) pretty widespread, elevated risk of large fires come August,” John Abatzoglou, a climatologist at the University of California, Merced, previously told The Bee.