Why hurricane season could bring fewer but stronger storms. See predictions

Milena Malaver, Miami Herald on Mar 25, 2026

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MIAMI — Strong winds across the Atlantic could make it harder for storms to form, potentially pushing the 2026 hurricane season below average, according to AccuWeather’s newly released forecast.

The forecasting service predicts 11 to 16 named storms, including 4 to 7 hurricanes and 2 to 4 major hurricanes.

Last year, AccuWeather’s 2025 outlook called for 13 to 18 named storms, with 7 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes. The National Hurricane Center and Colorado State University also issue predictions.

Hurricane season starts June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

El Niño is expected to develop this hurricane season, which usually leads to fewer storms in the Atlantic, according to AccuWeather. That increases strong winds high in the atmosphere, called wind shear, that can disrupt storms and stop them from forming or strengthening. The effect is expected to become more noticeable later in the season, especially after the peak around Sept. 10.

There’s also about a 15% chance that a stronger version, called a “Super El Niño,” could develop in the second half of the season. If that happens, it could reduce hurricane activity even further, AccuWeather said.

But forecasters still warn us to be prepared for stronger storms this hurricane season.

“It’s very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of the forecast,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert. “Even if it’s expected to be a slightly below average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States.”

Exceptionally warm Atlantic waters remain a factor for the 2026 season. Warm waters fuel stronger storms and increases risk of rapid intensification, according to AccuWeather.

“Water temperatures across much of the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic are forecast to reach exceptionally warm levels again this summer. That heat extends hundreds of feet below the surface, providing additional fuel for storms,” DaSilva said. “As a result, we are very concerned about the risk of rapid intensification this hurricane season.”

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center will introduce an updated hurricane forecast cone for 2026 that includes inland watches and warnings, along with new storm surge alerts for Hawaii. These changes are designed to help both coastal and inland communities prepare earlier and more effectively for hurricane impacts.