Medline jumps as analysts bullish after 2025's top IPO

Natalia Kniazhevich, Bloomberg News on Jan 12, 2026

By clicking submit, I authorize Arcamax and its affiliates to: (1) use, sell, and share my information for marketing purposes, including cross-context behavioral advertising, as described in our Privacy Policy , (2) add to information that I provide with other information like interests inferred from web page views, or data lawfully obtained from data brokers, such as past purchase or location data, or publicly available data, (3) contact me or enable others to contact me by email or other means with offers for different types of goods and services, and (4) retain my information while I am engaging with marketing messages that I receive and for a reasonable amount of time thereafter. I understand I can opt out at any time through an email that I receive, or by clicking here

Medline Inc. shares advanced Monday as Wall Street analysts struck a bullish tone on the medical supplier’s business model and growth prospects following its $7.2 billion IPO last month.

Twenty seven firms tracked by Bloomberg initiated coverage, with 22 buy-equivalent ratings. Analysts set an average 12-month price target of $47.12 per share, implying a 12% upside from Friday’s close, pointed to Medline’s scale and vertically integrated manufacturing model as well as tailwinds from an aging population.

Shares of Medline climbed as much as 6.3% on Monday, adding to gains since its initial public offering, which was the largest in 2025 according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Medline’s shares shared gained nearly 40% from the IPO price through Jan. 9, after a year when numerous debuts were poorly received.

The company, which makes and distributes products such as gloves, gowns and exam tables used by hospitals and doctors, currently has a market value of more than $57 billion.

Medline is the dominant player in medical-surgical distribution, operating across a $375 billion total addressable market, including $175 billion in the U.S., according to analysts at William Blair. The company has penetrated roughly 15% of that opportunity, they said.

“Underpinning all this is decades of mid-single-digit market growth that is expected to continue for the next 10 years due to an aging population,” William Blair’s Brandon Vazquez wrote in a note, adding that multi-year contracts provide clear visibility into future share gains. The share of U.S. residents who are 65 and older is projected to rise to about 23% by 2050 from roughly 17% today, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.

Medline’s strong performance should dispel any concern prompted by its long road to a listing. Though the company filed confidentially late in 2024, its plans were disrupted by tariff uncertainty and later, the U.S. government shutdown. Following its debut in December, the shares are on track to outperform U.S. IPOs raising $1 billion or more, which have returned a weighted average in their first month of 16%, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Tariff costs

Some analysts struck a more cautious tone, citing the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs. Rothschild & Co. Redburn, which launched coverage with a $42 price target and neutral rating, said margin development is expected to be broadly flat between fiscal 2025 and 2028, weighed down by tariff-related dilution. The tariffs introduced by the U.S. administration are set to materially pressure margins, particularly in the second half of fiscal 2025 and in 2026, the firm said.

Others saw the effect dissipating beyond the short term. Analysts at Bank of America set a $50 price target, citing Medline’s leadership in U.S. medical-surgical manufacturing and distribution, and highlighting expectations for long-term high-single-digit percentage point organic growth and accelerating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization by 2027 after the absorption of tariff-related costs.

Jailendra Singh, a senior equity research analyst at Truist Securities who set a $52 price target, highlighted Medline’s manufacturing and distribution footprint and extensive sourcing and third-party vendor partnerships, which he said create a self-reinforcing cycle of adoption, retention and expansion.

Medline generated more than $16 billion in revenue from existing so-called prime vendor customers in 2024, and has been systematically converting lower-margin third-party products into higher-margin Medline-branded sales as those relationships mature, Singh added. Management sees Medline-brand penetration reaching 60% over time, from about 35% currently, a shift Singh estimates could unlock roughly $1 billion of incremental gross profit.