Hurricane center lowers chances system could develop in Gulf

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Jul 17, 2025

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ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center on Thursday lowered its forecast chances that a system that had moved over Florida the day previous could develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical advisory, the broad area of low pressure was located over the northern Gulf just south of the coast of Mississippi.

“The associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and located mainly to the west and southwest of the center,” forecasters said. “Some development could occur before the system moves westward into Louisiana later today or tonight, although the chances of the system developing into a tropical depression are low.”

It formed earlier this week in the Atlantic and its tropical moisture had dumped rounds of showers across the Florida peninsula as it tracked west.

The NHC dropped the chances to 30% that the system would develop in the next two to seven days.

If it were the grow into a named storm, it could become Tropical Storm Dexter.

“Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of the north-central Gulf Coast through Friday,” forecasters said.

The state was previously doused by rains associated with what developed into Tropical Storm Chantal earlier this month. That storm ended up striking the Carolina coast and dumped flooding rains inland.

Before the start of hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had forecast an expected 13 to 19 named storms for the year, of which 6 to 10 would grow into hurricanes. Three to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

Researchers out of Colorado State University this week, though, updated their forecast saying they expect the season to be slightly less busy than what they had predicted earlier this year.

Hurricane season runs June 1 to Nov. 30.

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